ELECTION NIGHT · TUESDAY 3 TO WEDNESDAY 4 NOVEMBER 2026
Is it a blue wave?
Hour by hour, state by state.
Andrew O'Malley
THE HOUSE
218 for a majority
Currently R 218, D 214. Cook projects Democrats at 227 to 237; Silver Bulletin puts their chance of winning the House at about 95%. The question is the size of the win.
Reading the grid: in the blue columns, Democrats win the seat; in the red column, Republicans win it. Each chip carries the seat's 2024 margin. ★ marks a seat redrawn since 2024, with Trump v Harris 2024 on the new lines.
THE SENATE
Democrats need a net +4
VP Vance breaks ties. Hold MI, GA, NH and MN, then flip four of NC, OH, ME, IA, TX, AK, KS and SC. Independent Osborn (NE) could change the arithmetic. Odds: Silver ~79% D, Decision Desk 57%, VoteHub 60%.
Reading the grid: find the box the winning margin lands in. The 2024 line is the state's presidential margin.
RED RIPTIDE
GOP holds or gains House
Senate GOP +3 to even
BLUE TIDE
House 218–229 D
Senate D +1 to +3
BLUE WAVE
House 230–239 D
Senate D +4 to +6
BLUE TSUNAMI
House 240+ D
Senate D +7 or more
23:00
Tuesday
6:00 pm ET
Most of Kentucky and Indiana
First real numbers.
Kentucky
HOUSE
KY-06
Open seat (R)
2024: R +26
KY-6, Lexington: Alvarado (R) v Dembo (D). Trump +15 in 2024; polls roughly tied. A bellwether for a big blue wave.
GOOD FOR DEMSDembo wins: wave territory, likely 230+ seats, and a Democratic majority near certain.
GOOD FOR GOPGOP holds by 10 or more: red riptide territory. A narrower hold is a normal Democratic night, not a wave.
Indiana
HOUSE
IN-05
Spartz (R)
2024: R +19
IN-5, Indianapolis suburbs: Spartz (R) v J.D. Ford (D). Spartz clearly favoured. Watch Hamilton County (Trump 52 to 46 in 2024). IN-1 (Mrvan, D) is on Central time and closes at 00:00.
GOOD FOR DEMSFord near 49 to 50% signals a wave; a Ford win is wave territory.
GOOD FOR GOPSpartz wins by 15 or more: red riptide territory. Ford stuck at 45 to 47% is where the polls have him.
00:00
Wednesday
7:00 pm ET
Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina, most of Florida, NW Indiana, Vermont, parts of New Hampshire
Normal midterm, or a 2018-style night?
Virginia
HOUSE
VA-07
Vindman (D)
2024: D +3
VA-02
Kiggans (R)
2024: R +4
VA-01
Wittman (R)
2024: R +13
VA-05
McGuire (R)
2024: R +15
A ladder of three: VA-2 Kiggans (R) v Luria (D), Luria favoured. VA-1 Wittman (R) v Taylor (D), Trump +5, toss-up. VA-5 McGuire (R) v Perriello (D), Trump +12.
GOOD FOR DEMSEach Democratic win moves the night one column to the right: VA-2 a tide, VA-1 a wave (about 235 seats), VA-5 a tsunami (about 250).
GOOD FOR GOPKiggans holds VA-2: not even a tide, and a Democratic majority becomes less likely than not.
COUNTINGWittman won VA-1 by about 13 in 2024, so even a close race there is good for Democrats. VA-7 (Vindman) should be a routine hold.
Florida
HOUSE
FL-14 ★
Castor (D)
New lines: Trump +10
FL-22 ★
Open seat (D)
New lines: Trump +10
FL-25 ★
Moskowitz (D)
New lines: Trump +9
FL-09 ★
Soto (D)
New lines: Trump +18
FL-07
Open seat (R)
2024: R +13
FL-27
Salazar (R)
2024: R +21
SENATE
Moody (R) v Nixon (D) · panhandle closes 01:00
Polls: RCP R +6.1
2024: Trump +13
R 10+
R 4–9
R 3–Even
Any D win
The fast-count state: 80%+ of ballots expected counted by 01:00. Governor: Donalds (R) v Jolly (D). The GOP redrew the lines, so Democratic incumbents Castor, Moskowitz and Soto now sit in Republican-leaning seats; a hold counts as a Democratic win.
GOOD FOR DEMSGovernor still uncalled at 02:00: a very good sign. Castor and Moskowitz both hold: the tide is in, and a House majority is near certain.
GOOD FOR GOPGOP wins statewide by 5+ and sweeps all four redrawn seats (FL-9, 14, 22, 25): red riptide. Castor and Moskowitz both losing puts the Democratic majority at about 1 in 3.
COUNTINGStretch seats: FL-22 (open), FL-9 Soto (Trump +18 on new lines), FL-27 Salazar (Latino backlash test).
Georgia
HOUSE
GA-02
Bishop (D)
2024: D +13
GA-01
Open seat (R)
2024: R +24
SENATE
Collins (R) v Ossoff (D) · Cook Likely D
Polls: RCP D +8.2
2024: Trump +2.2
R win or D <5
D 5–10
D 11–14
D 15+
Governor: Jackson (R) v Bottoms (D).
GOOD FOR DEMSOssoff’s margin bigger than expected: a good omen for the South.
GOOD FOR GOPJackson called for governor before metro Atlanta reports: no wave.
COUNTINGMetro Atlanta counts last; early Republican leads mean little. Under 50% triggers a run-off.
South Carolina
HOUSE
SC-01
Open seat (R)
2024: R +17
SC-02
Wilson (R)
2024: R +19
SENATE
D. Graham (R, appointed) v Andrews (D) · Likely R
Polls: RCP R +2.7 · Silver R +1.7
2024: Trump +18
R 9+
R 8–Even
D 1–4
D 5+
The sleeper race.
GOOD FOR DEMSStrong Black turnout (which surged in the primaries) and the race goes uncalled late. SC-1 or SC-2 (Trump +14) in play: tsunami territory.
GOOD FOR GOPA big Graham win, called early, means Republicans came home and the polls missed.
Indiana (north-west)
HOUSE
IN-01
Mrvan (D)
2024: D +9
GOOD FOR DEMSCalled quickly for the Democrat.
GOOD FOR GOPToo close to call: likely good for Republicans.
00:30
Wednesday
7:30 pm ET
North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
Are the flips actually flipping?
North Carolina
HOUSE
NC-01 ★
Davis (D)
New lines: Trump +12
NC-11
Open seat (R)
2024: R +14
NC-09
Hudson (R)
2024: R +19
NC-05
Foxx (R)
2024: R +19
SENATE
Whatley (R) v Cooper (D) · open, R-held, Cook Likely D
Polls: RCP D +10.7
2024: Trump +3.2
R win or D <6
D 6–12
D 13–16
D 17+
Senate flip #1; watch Wake and Mecklenburg counties. In the House, redrawn lines put Davis (NC-1) in a Republican-leaning seat; Ager (D) challenges in NC-11.
GOOD FOR DEMSCalled for Cooper at poll close: the baseline wave is real. Davis holds NC-1 and Ager flips NC-11: House majority odds 90%+.
GOOD FOR GOPCooper struggling: the whole Senate path gets shaky. Democrats lose both House seats: majority odds fall to about 60%.
COUNTINGTsunami tell: NC-9 (Hudson, the NRCC chair).
Ohio
HOUSE
OH-01 ★
Landsman (D)
New lines: Trump +3
OH-13 ★
Sykes (D)
New lines: Harris +3
OH-07
Miller (R)
2024: R +15
OH-09 ★
Kaptur (D)
New lines: Trump +11
OH-10
Turner (R)
2024: R +18
SENATE
Husted (R) v Brown (D)
Polls: RCP D +2.6 · Silver R +3.7
2024: Trump +11
R 2+
R 1–D 6
D 7–10
D 11+
Senate flip #2; the two polling averages disagree sharply. In the House, redrawn lines put Landsman (OH-1) and Sykes (OH-13) in seats Republicans can take, and Kaptur (OH-9) in a Republican-leaning one. OH-7: Poindexter (D) v Max Miller (R).
GOOD FOR DEMSBrown running 4+ points ahead of his 2024 race: Ohio likely flips, and a comfortable win should worry Republicans elsewhere. Poindexter beats Miller: House majority odds 90%+.
GOOD FOR GOPBrown trails, or it is a coin flip late into the night. Landsman or Sykes loses: red riptide territory.
COUNTINGTsunami tell: OH-15 (Carey).
01:00
Wednesday
8:00 pm ET
Texas, Michigan, Maine, Pennsylvania, most of Kansas, New Jersey, Missouri, New Hampshire, Mississippi, Florida panhandle
The big hour.
Pennsylvania
HOUSE
PA-08
Bresnahan (R)
2024: R +1.6
PA-01
Fitzpatrick (R)
2024: R +13
Four GOP-held seats to defend. PA-7 Mackenzie and PA-10 Perry are both Cook Lean D and expected to fall.
GOOD FOR DEMSPA-8 Bresnahan (Trump +8) losing to Cognetti, or PA-1 Fitzpatrick finally falling, confirms the tide.
GOOD FOR GOPGOP holds both PA-7 and PA-10: red riptide.
Texas
HOUSE
TX-15 ★
De La Cruz (R)
New lines: Trump +18
SENATE
Paxton (R) v Talarico (D) · El Paso closes 02:00
Polls: RCP D +1.8 · Silver D +2.4
2024: Trump +14
R 5+
R 4–D 4
D 5–8
D 9+
Governor: Abbott (R) v Hinojosa (D). The GOP redrew five seats: TX-9, 28, 32, 34, 35.
GOOD FOR DEMSTalarico beats Harris’s 2024 margins in South Texas: Texas in play. Abbott still uncalled at 04:00: Republicans have a problem. TX-15 Pulido (D) flips: wave territory, with Latino voters swinging back.
GOOD FOR GOPGOP wins four or more of the five redrawn seats: red riptide. Paxton trailing Abbott means Republicans are splitting tickets, so Texas is at risk for the GOP regardless.
COUNTINGHouston, Dallas, San Antonio and Austin report late; expect a long night.
Michigan
HOUSE
MI-04
Huizenga (R)
2024: R +12
MI-07
Barrett (R)
2024: R +4
MI-10
Open seat (R)
2024: R +6
SENATE
Rogers (R) v El-Sayed (D) · Upper Peninsula closes 02:00
Polls: RCP D +3.5 · Silver D +3.0
2024: Trump +1.4
Any R win
D 0–7
D 8–11
D 12+
A must-hold for Democrats. MI-4 Huizenga is a toss-up.
GOOD FOR DEMSCalled for El-Sayed before 05:00.
GOOD FOR GOPRogers running ahead of his polls, or El-Sayed lagging Harris’s 2024 vote in Detroit.
COUNTINGDetroit and Wayne County report late. Do not panic early.
Maine
HOUSE
ME-02
Open seat (D)
2024: D +0.7
SENATE
Collins (R) v Jackson (D)
Polls: RCP D +1.2 · Silver D +2.8
2024: Harris +7
R 1+
Even–D 4
D 5–8
D 9+
ME-2 (open): Dunlap (D) v LePage (R), Trump +9.
GOOD FOR DEMSDunlap close or ahead in ME-2: a leading indicator for the Senate race.
COUNTINGIf no one tops 50%, the ranked-choice count takes days.
New Jersey
HOUSE
NJ-07
Kean (R)
2024: R +5
NJ-02
Van Drew (R)
2024: R +17
NJ-7 Kean is Cook Lean D.
Kansas
SENATE
Marshall (R) v Hamilton (D) · far west closes 02:00
Polls: RCP D +2.4 · Silver D +1.1
2024: Trump +16
R 7+
R 6–D 3
D 4–7
D 8+
Cook toss-up. A Hamilton win is Senate insurance.
GOOD FOR DEMSNo quick call. Hamilton winning Johnson County by 20+ puts it in play.
GOOD FOR GOPCalled for Marshall early in the night.
New Hampshire
SENATE
J.E. Sununu (R) v Pappas (D) · Cook Lean D
Polls: RCP D +6.2
2024: Harris +2.8
R win or D <4
D 4–11
D 12–15
D 16+
Mississippi
SENATE
Hyde-Smith (R) v Colom (D)
Polls: no average
2024: Trump +23
R 14+
R 3–13
R 2–Even
D 1+
02:00
Wednesday
9:00 pm ET
Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico
Wisconsin 2016 flashbacks allowed. Panic is not.
Iowa
HOUSE
IA-01
Miller-Meeks (R)
2024: R +0.2
IA-02
Open seat (R)
2024: R +16
IA-03
Nunn (R)
2024: R +4
SENATE
Hinson (R) v Turek (D) · open, Sabato toss-up
Polls: RCP R +0.5 · Silver D +1.2
2024: Trump +13
R 5+
R 4–D 2
D 3–6
D 7+
The "coma state" test. Governor: Rob Sand (D).
GOOD FOR DEMSDemocrats sweep the Senate, governorship and all three House seats: a wave in both House and Senate.
GOOD FOR GOPLosing the Iowa Senate race narrows the Senate path considerably.
COUNTINGAt 03:00, watch farm-county GOP turnout: below 2022 means farmers are leaving the GOP.
Nebraska
HOUSE
NE-02
Open seat (R)
2024: R +1.9
SENATE
Ricketts (R) v Osborn (Independent)
Polls: RCP R +1.4
2024: Trump +21 · Osborn lost by 6.7
R 5+
R 4–Even
I 1–4
I 5+
With Kansas and Texas, the tsunami trio. NE-2 is Cook Lean D.
GOOD FOR DEMSOne Republican loss among the three is a very big Democratic night; two or more is historic.
Minnesota
SENATE
Tafoya (R) v Flanagan (D)
Polls: RCP D +5.1
2024: Harris +4.2
R win or D <1
D 1–12
D 13–16
D 17+
Should be safe, along with New Mexico.
COUNTINGIf these are close while others are blue, blame the candidates, not the climate.
Arizona
HOUSE
AZ-01
Open seat (R)
2024: R +4
AZ-06
Ciscomani (R)
2024: R +2.5
AZ-1 is Cook Lean D.
COUNTINGArizona counts slowly. Expect days, not hours.
Colorado
HOUSE
CO-08
Evans (R)
2024: R +0.7
CO-05
Crank (R)
2024: R +14
GOOD FOR DEMSCO-5 Crank (Cook Lean R) in play: the tide is running strongly.
Wisconsin
HOUSE
WI-03
Van Orden (R)
2024: R +2.7
GOOD FOR DEMSWI-1 Steil (Cook Lean R) in play: the tide is running strongly.
New York
HOUSE
NY-17
Lawler (R)
2024: R +6
03:00–04:00
Wednesday
10–11 pm ET
03:00: Nevada, Montana, Utah · 04:00: California, Washington, Oregon
How big is the House majority?
The West
MT-1 (open, Cook Lean R) closes at 03:00; CA-22 Valadao (R) and CA-48 (open), both redrawn, at 04:00. These toss-ups settle the final size.
GOOD FOR DEMSA Democratic win in MT-1 means competing outside usual turf.
COUNTINGNV-3 Lee (D, Cook Likely D) and WA-3 Gluesenkamp Perez (D, Cook Lean D) should hold.
California
Proposition 50 lines target GOP seats, including CA-22 (Valadao).
COUNTINGBallots postmarked by Election Day count if they arrive within seven days. Calls can take days to weeks; do not expect answers on Tuesday night.
04:00 checkpoint
Senate control should come into focus now, unless it runs through Maine or Alaska.
GOOD FOR DEMSIowa, Texas and the Florida governorship still uncalled. Abbott uncalled with a shrinking lead means GOP trouble.
GOOD FOR GOPJackson already called in Georgia; Abbott, Marshall and Hinson called comfortably.
05:00+
Wednesday
12:00 am ET onward
Alaska, Hawaii
If it is down to Alaska or Maine, go to bed.
Alaska
Senate: Peltola (D) v Sullivan (R). Sabato Leans D; Silver average D +3.5. 2024: Trump +13.
COUNTINGRanked-choice tabulation does not start until 18 November. Early numbers are first-choice votes only: a hint, nothing more.
08:00 checkpoint
Both chambers should be called by about now.
GOOD FOR GOPNo Senate call by 08:00: either the GOP is outperforming the polls or it is down to Alaska and Maine. Either way, sleep.
13:00 Wednesday
Expect 1 to 2 Senate races, 1 to 2 governorships and about a dozen House races still open at this point.
COUNTINGThere is roughly a 1 in 5 chance that Senate control hinges on a single state, which could take a week or more.
COUNTING ORDER, STATE BY STATE
Florida: fast and clean; the best early read of the night.
Georgia: metro Atlanta counts last, so early Republican leads are unreliable.
Michigan: Detroit reports late; early numbers look redder than the result.
Texas: the big Democratic metros report late.
Maine and Alaska: ranked-choice counting can take days to weeks (Alaska's tabulation starts 18 November).
Arizona, Nevada, California: heavy postal voting; days of counting.
Found this useful?
Compiled from Cook, Decision Desk HQ, Chuck Todd, Karl Rove, Silver Bulletin, RCP and the 2024 results. If it helped you through the night, a coffee is welcome.